Leonids 2003:
Predictions for Europe and the Americas
On the night of Nov. 18-19, Earth will enter the Filament and graze one of three small trails of comet dust released in 1533.
Peter Jenniskens of NASA's Ames Research Center suggests that observers worldwide should look for fireballs from the Filament between Nov. 17 and 20. He predicts that Filament-related activity will peak with a ZHR of 50 around 05:30 UT on Nov. 19. Westernmost Europe will just be entering twilight at about this time.
Two hours later, the Earth will pass a mini-trail from the 1533 stream. According to Jérémie Vaubaillon of the Institut de Mécanique Céleste et de Calcul des Éphémérides, this will produce an hour-long period of enhanced activity (ZHR = 120) centered at 07:27 UT, or 2:27 a.m. EST. Observers located in the Caribbean and easternmost North and South America will have the best view.
The graphs below, which were generated from the predictions of Jenniskens and Vaubaillon, illustrate what observers located throughout Europe and the Americas will see that night. Light from the waning crescent moon will not significantly interfere.
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